Members of the House who fear losing their seats were much more likely to vote for the farm bill last month than members from safe districts, according to a Hagstrom Report analysis.

The analysis uses a list of the 80 House districts expected to be the most competitive in the 2014 election, as identified by Democracy Corps, a Democratic campaign organization run by campaign consultant James Carville and pollster Stan Greenberg.

The list of competitive districts was released on June 20 — oddly the same day that the farm bill failed to win approval in the House.

Fifty-two of the members representing those 80 most competitive districts — 65 percent — voted for the farm bill.

In percentage terms, that means that if the farm bill had been considered only by members from highly competitive districts, it would have been approved overwhelmingly.

In reverse, it could be said that gerrymandered districts in which incumbents are safe or only fear primary opponents from the far right or the far left are bad for the farm bill.

In the 24 Republican districts in which Democrats have the best chance of winning in 2014, 20 GOP members voted to approve the bill, while three voted against it and one did not vote.

In the next 25 most competitive districts held by Republicans, 18 GOP members voted yes and seven voted no.

In the 31 Democratic districts in which Republicans have the best chance of unseating incumbents, 14 of those Democratic incumbents voted for the bill and 17 voted against it.

The farm bill won only 45 percent of those Democratic members’ votes, but the 14 members who voted for it made up more than half of the 24 Democrats who supported the bill.

The farm bill failed in the House on a vote of 195 in favor to 234 against it.

The memo Carville and Greenberg have written describes 22 of the 80 districts that will be the most competitive in 2014 as rural or exurban.

• Hagstrom Report House Farm Bill Roll Call Report
• Democracy Corps — 2013 Congressional Battleground very competitive