Jagger, NSAC analyze CBO farm bill baseline
February 07, 2013 | 09:11 PM
The February 2013 Congressional Budget Office baseline for farm programs shows that the amount of budget authority available to write a new farm bill is likely to be a little bit less and that most of the reduction will be in the nutrition programs, former House Agriculture Committee economist Craig Jagger said in an analysis emailed to The Hagstrom Report.
Jagger, now a private consultant, said that while Congress is likely to use the March baseline to write a new bill, the February baseline released Tuesday is the best indicator of what that baseline will look like.
Jagger also noted that the 10-year scoring periods for the March 2012 and the February 2013 baselines differ by one year. The 10-year scoring period is FY 2014-23 for the February 2013 baseline and FY 2013-22 for the March 2012 baseline, he noted.
Jagger's findings from the February 2013 report on 10-year baselines:
- The total 10-year baseline for all titles of 2008 farm bill programs and provisions is down $13.7 billion (from $995 billion to $981 billion) — a 1.4 percent reduction.
- 86 percent of the total 10-year baseline reduction for all titles is in the nutrition title, which is down $11.7 billion (from $771.8 billion to $760.1 billion) — a 1.5 percent decrease.
- The commodity title is, in aggregate, up $1.3 billion ($62.9 billion to $64.3 billion) — an 2.1 increase.
- Of the major commodities listed, only the rice and dairy baselines show declines. The dairy program baseline is down $148 million (from $432 million to $284 million) — a 34.3 percent decrease. Rice is down $225 million (from $4.4 billion to $4.2 billion) — a 5.1 percent decrease.
- The crop insurance title is down $2.9 billion (from $89.8 billion to $86.9 billion) — a 3.2 percent decline.
- The conservation title is down $351 million (from $65.3 billion to $64.9 billion) — a 0.5 percent decrease.
- The only energy title program with a 10-year baseline is the feedstock flexibility program for bioenergy. Its baseline is down $96 million (from $324 million to $228 million) — a 29 percent decrease.
Other titles of the 2008 farm bill either see little change in their 10-year baselines (trade, horticulture and organic) or do not have 10-year baselines. There are an estimated 37 programs or provisions from the 2008 farm bill that do not have 10-year baselines. These are scattered throughout the titles.
The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition also released its analysis of the CBO numbers in a website blog. NSAC noted that CBO has projected that the cost of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, better known as SNAP or food stamps, will go down.
NSAC also noted that crop insurance expenditures are projected to go down while current commodity programs, if they stay in place, would go up. Dairy spending would go down, making it more difficult to find the budget authority to rewrite the dairy program, NSAC said.
