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Retirements and elections will affect Senate Agriculture Committee

Retirements from Congress as well as the results of the 2014 midterm elections on Tuesday will affect the leadership and membership of the Senate Agriculture Committee in the next Congress.

It is difficult to predict exactly what will happen because members of Congress may also seek to change the committees on which they serve. Because the farm bill was passed this year and is in place through fiscal year 2018, neither the Senate nor the House agriculture committee will be considered a prime assignment at this time.

The main issues expected to come before the authorizing committees in the next two years are reauthorization of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and reauthorization of child nutrition program including school meals, the special supplemental nutrition program for women, infants and children known as WIC and commodity distribution programs. Republicans may also push for hearings on the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP or food stamps.)

The House has already passed the CFTC reauthorization bill, but the Senate appears unlikely to act on it this year.

The child nutrition bill will be handled by the Senate Agriculture Committee, but in the House the bill comes under the jurisdiction of the Education and Workforce Committee.

Here are some factors affecting the future of the Senate Agriculture Committee:

Whether the Republicans win control of the Senate or not, the position of Senate Agriculture Committee Chairwoman Debbie Stabenow, R-Mich., is in question due to movements on other committees.

Because Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pension Committee Chairman Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, is retiring, Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., who chairs the Senate Budget Committee, is expected to take the top Democratic position on the HELP Committee.

If Murray makes that move, the Senate leadership could exert pressure on Stabenow to take the top Democratic position on Budget.

Sens. Ron Wyden of Montana and Bill Nelson of Florida are ahead of Stabenow in seniority on Budget, but Wyden already chairs Finance and Nelson is in line to be the top Democrat on Commerce after Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia retires.

Stabenow has said she wants to stay on Agriculture, but Senate insiders say she would come under tremendous pressure from other Democrats to move to Budget. One reason is that the senator just behind her in seniority is Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who caucuses with the Democrats but is considering a presidential bid from a leftist perspective.

If Stabenow gives up the top Democratic position on Agriculture, Sen. Pat Leahy of Vermont could claim it, but he has already served as chairman of the committee and is unlikely to give up the top position on Judiciary, a very prestigious committee that would play a major role in immigration legislation.

The two senators most likely to claim the top Democract seat on Senate Ag are Sherrod Brown of Ohio or Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. Brown is next in seniority after Leahy, but he also sits on the Banking committee.

Brown is only the fifth ranking Democrat on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee, but he may be the most likely new chairman or ranking member of that committee.

Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota, who chairs Banking, is retiring. Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island is next in line, but he is also second ranking on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which is chaired by Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan. Levin is retiring, and Reed appears most interested in the top Democratic position on that committee.

Sen. Charles Schumer of New York also ranks above Brown but is believed to be more interested in his role in immigration on Judiciary and in a leadership position than in the Banking post. Just above Brown in rank is Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, who is already chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

If the Republicans take control of the Senate, Sen. Thad Cochran of Mississippi, the current ranking Republican on Agriculture, is expected to use his seniority to claim the top position on Appropriations — as he did when he pushed Sen. Pat Roberts of Kansas aside to claim the ranking member position on the Ag Committee and deliver a farm bill that was more agreeable to southern farmers than the proposal Roberts had.

If Roberts keeps his Senate seat, he will claim the chairmanship. But his race is one of the closest in the country. If Roberts loses, Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas is the most likely top Republican.

(Cochran and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky both have more seniority than even Roberts, but McConnell, the current minority leader, hopes to become majority leader while Cochran is expected to take over Appropriations.)

The Senate Agriculture Committee is currently composed of 20 members — 11 Democrats and nine Republicans. If the Republicans take over but the number of members of each party is very close, the party composition of the membership is likely to reverse.

Because Harkin and Sen. John Walsh, D-Mont., are both retiring, it would appear under that circumstance that none of the remaining Democrats would have to give up a seat. But if the Republicans gain a larger-than-expected majority, a Democrat might have to.

The rest of the Democrats on the committee are Michael Bennet of Colorado, Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Joe Donnelley of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Robert Casey of Pennsylvania.

Whether the Republicans take over the Senate or not, there will be Republican openings on the committee because Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Mike Johanns of Nebraska are retiring.

The other Republicans on the committee are Charles Grassley of Iowa and John Thune of South Dakota.